The impacts of the informal economy, climate migration, and rising temperatures on energy system planning

This study investigates how the informal economy, climate migration, and temperature changes affect energy demand and long-term urban energy planning in Accra, Ghana. Energy demand is significantly impacted by climate-induced migration and rising temperatures, potentially hindering sustainability targets. Photovoltaics, waste energy conversion, and transportation electrification are critical solution pathways but require substantial grid upgrades. The study highlights the importance of considering these factors in energy planning, especially in countries vulnerable to climate change, like Ghana.

Resilient energy system analysis and planning using optimization models

This study integrates resilience analysis into long-term energy system optimization models using a multi-objective approach. Various resilience and sustainability metrics are combined into a composite resilience metric, which is optimized and compared to cost and emission objectives. The method is tested on two municipal case studies in Ghana and China, demonstrating how energy systems designed with a resilience objective can better adapt to shocks and reduce damage costs compared to conventional approaches.

Modelling the informal sector and energy consumption in Ghana

The informal sector, characterized by unrecorded economic activities, significantly impacts national energy demand in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using autoregressive distributed lag estimation, we find an adverse effect of the informal sector on energy consumption. The informal sector influences energy consumption through education, employment, and foreign direct investment. These findings underscore the need for policy considerations.

Assessment of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios and its impacts on the Greater Accra region

This study examines the escalating effects of climate change in the Greater Accra region, utilizing Regional Climate Models under the latest IPCC scenarios. It predicts a reduction and shift in precipitation intensity and a significant increase in maximum and minimum temperatures across different scenarios. These changes have wide-ranging impacts, from agriculture to power generation. The findings offer valuable insights for policymaking concerning Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 11 and 13.

Quantifying the narratives: extreme climate projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios in Greater Accra

Recently published! (July 2024)

This study examines the increasing susceptibility of the Greater Accra region to extreme climate events (ECEs) such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves. Using CMIP6 models, it forecasts intensifying ECEs, especially under the SSP5 scenario. We predict heightened drought severity and increased flood and heatwave intensity across the region. The findings aim to inform climate policies related to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 11 and 13.

Depreciating currency impacts on local-scale energy system planning: the case study of Accra, Ghana

This study uses an optimization model to investigate the impact of local currency depreciation on long-term sustainable energy planning. Assessing various depreciation scenarios reveals significant effects on renewable energy technology investments, with potential reductions of up to 80% in solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment. Consequently, CO2 emissions increase by up to 65%, and total system costs triple in the worst-case scenario. However, waste energy power plants emerge as a resilient investment option. The findings highlight the importance of incorporating currency depreciation into energy planning processes, especially in developing economies, to ensure robust and sustainable energy systems.

Strengthening energy system resilience planning under uncertainty by minimizing regret

Recently published! (August 2024)

This study strengthens energy system resilience planning under uncertainty using optimization models by applying regret decision theory. Considered uncertainties include volatile fossil fuel supply, volatile hydropower generation under climate change, rising demand due to climate change-driven rural-urban migration and global warming, unplanned power outages due to increasing natural disasters, and currency depreciation. The method offers energy planners a pragmatic approach to improve resilience in long-term planning amidst uncertainty.

Estimating and forecasting suppressed electricity demand in Ghana under climate change, the informal economy and sector inefficiencies

Recently published! (August 2024)

This study investigates suppressed demand in Ghana, focusing on influential factors like the informal economy, rising temperatures due to climate change, and electricity transmission losses. Results suggest that informal sector growth and transmission losses contribute to suppressed demand, with rising temperatures also playing a significant role. Forecasting indicates continued growth in suppressed demand through 2050, highlighting the need for infrastructure upgrades, institutional reforms, and investments in green and cooling infrastructure to address these challenges effectively.

Impact of drought on hydropower generation in the volta river basin and future projections under different climate and development pathways

Work in progress – expected soon!

This study assesses how future droughts in Ghana’s Volta Basin could affect hydropower generation and electricity prices. With hydropower supplying 35% of the nation’s electricity, increased drought risks due to climate change raise concerns. Findings indicate more frequent hydropower deficits and rising electricity prices across scenarios. The study underscores the need to diversify energy sources and implement climate adaptation measures for resilience.

Flood risk assessment under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A case of electricity bulk supply points in Greater Accra, Ghana

Just published! (October 2024)

This study assesses flood vulnerability and risk at Bulk Supply Points (BSPs) in the Greater Accra region, employing a Frequency Ratio (FR) model. It finds increasing vulnerability under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, particularly in low-lying and coastal areas. The study emphasizes the urgency of adaptive measures to mitigate escalating flood risks and recommends prioritizing flood defenses and adaptive measures at vulnerable BSPs, including elevation or relocation of components, construction of floodwalls, and employing flood monitoring systems. The findings supports Ghana’s efforts in achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 11 and 13.

Battery-electric vehicle penetration feasibility study for Accra, Ghana

Work in progress

This study assesses how increased EV charging loads affect power stability and reliability in Accra. It aims to determine feasible rates for EV penetration given grid infrastructure and planned upgrades.